济南城市型水灾害特征分析

Analysis of characteristics of urban water disasters in Jinan

随着我国城市化进程的加快,财富与信息等在城市集聚的同时,城市型水灾害的发生频数在增加,灾害的损失也日益增加,可以说城市型水灾害的发生在于人类社会系统与自然生态系统的相互作用,是城市各个因素综合作用的结果。通过采用百分位法和R/S分析法等分析了济南市城市型水灾害降水、地形、水文特征,得到济南市区降水极端事件及暴雨次数与城市化率趋势一致,而且水灾害出现的时间与暴雨出现次数最多的时间段相吻合,同时济南市区未来降水变化趋势延续过去降水量整体变化趋势的可能性较大;加之南部山区和城市水系在人类土地利用方式和自然生态相互影响下脆弱的城市孕灾环境和承灾体共同作用导致济南市城市型水灾害产生。并针对此结合国外治水防水经验提出五项对策建议。通过本文的研究可以更加深入地的认识城市型水灾害的形成机制,并在此基础上为更好地避免或防御城市型水灾害的发生提供理论支撑。

With the rapid urbanization in China, w ealt h and informat ion are gathering in the cities, which also leads to the increas-ing of urban water disasters and loss of disasters. The occurrence of urban w ater disasters is caused by the interact ion betw een human social syst em and natural ecosystems, and is the result of the combined effects of various factors. In this paper, the char-acteristics of precipitat ion, t opography, and hydrology in urban w ater disasters of Jinan City were analyzed using t he percentile met hod and R/ S analysis method. The results show ed that the number of extreme precipitation events and the frequency of rain-storm are consistent with the urbanization trend, the t ime w hen urban w ater disasters occur is consistent w ith the period of time when rainstorm appears most ly, and the future trend of precipitation has the possibility of a continuation of the overall trend of precipitation in the past years. The fragile environment of developing hazards caused by the interact ions between human land use patterns and natural ecosystems in the southern mount ains and urban w ater systems combined w ith fragile hazard-bearing bodies lead to urban w ater disasters. Meanw hile, five suggestions w ere proposed according to t he flood control and prevention experience in other countries. The research can provide a better understanding of the format ion mechanism of urban wat er disas-ters, w hich can then offer theoret ical support for the prevent ion of the occurrence of urban water disasters.