中国电源结构调整的新思路——基于优先成本的视角

New Idea of Power Structure Adjustment in China:From View of Prioritized Cost

将企业成本最小化目标与碳夹点分析技术相结合,以优先成本作为中国电源结构调整的依据。以2010年为基准年份、以2020年为目标年份,提出了中国电力部门进行电源结构调整的新思路。研究结果表明:水电的优先成本最低,其次是天然气发电和新型煤电,因此应优先发展这三类电源;尽管可再生能源发电具有较高的环境效益,但是其优先成本较高,若不对之加大支持力度,则2020年之前中国可再生能源发电的市场份额不会增加。

This paper combines enterprise＇s goal of minimizing cost with carbon emission pinch analysis,and takes prioritized cost as the criterion of the adjustment of power structure.Then it puts forward the new idea for the adjustment of power structure under the constraint of electric demand and carbon emission by taking 2010 as the benchmark year and 2020 as the target year.The results show as follows：the prioritized cost of hydropower is the lowest,followed by natural gas and coal electricity,therefore,these three types of power supply should be given priority to development;the prioritized cost of renewable energy is very high,although government proposes to develop nuclear power,wind power and other renewable energy power,market operational mechanism indicates that the share of renewable energy generation would not increase by the year of 2020 if not enhancing the support for renewable energy generation.