空域运行规划安全评估方法研究

Study on safety assessment method for airspace operational planning

考虑天气不确定因素,通过容量概率分布确定容量场景,研究相应容量场景下空域冲突风险,并通过管制员工作负荷体现人为因素影响,提出了空域运行规划安全评估方法.从风险和安全的角度,为恶劣天气下空域运行策略决策提供支持.计算结果表明,飞行安全不但与空域结构有关,还和飞机速度、交通流情况、管制员工作负荷及安全间隔有关.可见该安全评估方法能有效评估空域运行规划策略的安全性,有利于平衡风险及容量需求的最佳运行方案的制定.

Considering the uncertain weather factors,this paper studied the coflict risk of the capacity scene determined by the probability distribution of the capacity. Besides,air traffic controller task- load was considered,and a safety assessment method for the airspace operational planning was established. From a risk and safety point of view,the decisions of airspace operation strategy were supported under the bad weather. Calculation result showed that in addition to airspace structure,the flight safety also depended on aircraft speed,traffic demand,air traffic controller task- load and the setting safety standard. The result indicated that the safety assessment method can assess the security of the operational planning effectively,it was also good for the determination of the most suitable airspace schedule balancing with risk and capacity requirements.