从多重双边到单一多边?——美国亚太同盟体系探析

From Multiple Bilateral to Single Multilateral?——An Analysis of the US Asia-Pacific Alliance System

冷战期间,对比欧洲的单一多边同盟北约,美国在亚太地区只有功能相对弱化的多重双边同盟,主要原因在于亚太地区苏联及中国军事存在的相对弱化。冷战结束后,中国的军事实力与美国仍有较大差距,美国亚太同盟体系未出现由多重双边向单一多边的转型。更重要的是,由于中国与亚太各国具有广泛而密切的经济联系,在亚太地区已形成多边合作网络,军事互信机制也初现端倪,即使中国继续保持现有的崛起势头,美国及其亚太盟国也难以对所谓"中国威胁"形成高度一致的整体认知,构建亚太版"小北约"的单一多边同盟既无必要性也无可行性。

During the Cold War,compared to NATO in Europe,the United States could only build much less functional multiple bilateral alliances in Asia-Pacific,primarily because the military strengths of Soviet Union and China were relatively weak in the region.After the cold war,as there are still big gaps between China＇s military strength and that of the US,the US AsiaPacific Alliance system has not seen a transition from multiple bilateral to single multilateral.More importantly,because China and other countries in Asia-Pacific enjoy extensive and close economic ties and has formed multilateral cooperation network,the military mutual trust mechanism between China and the US has been established,even if China continues to maintain its current rising momentum,it will be difficult for the US and its Asia-Pacific allies to form a high degree of consensus on the so-called＂China threat＂.Therefore,it is not necessary and feasible for the US to build a single multilateral Asia-Pacific version of＂Mini NATO＂.