中国对美“双重输出”格局及其新变化

THE “DUAL OUTPUT”STRUCTURE OF SINO-US AND NEW CHANGES

20世纪末以来,中美关系作为最重要的南北关系,很大程度上反映着世界格局的演进。客观上,中美分别作为产业资本第一大国和金融资本第一大国,其大国关系的实质乃中国对美"双重输出":中国向美国输出廉价工业品和对美输出资本投资;美国向中国输出低成本资金和服务。双方因处于不同的发展阶段而形成战略上紧密的经济互补关系。但这一关系因2008年金融危机之后的中美"相向转型"——中国向金融资本经济升级,美国向实体产业回调——而渐进向互斥竞争转化。处于对立矛盾却难以对抗的中国客观上只能对内依次转嫁"输入型危机"所引发的制度成本,近期需要借生态文明和城乡统筹转向国家综合安全战略调整,使这种危机借助乡土社会实现软着陆。

Since the late 20th century, the Sino-US relations as the most important North-South rela- tions largely reflected the evolution of the world situation. The current situation between the two countries shows that the United States and China are both leading countries although in different stages of develop- ment, and both are superpowers. The essences of relations between two big powers are ＂dual output＂： China exports cheap manufactured goods and foreign exchange reinvestment to the United States; the United States exports low-cost funds and financial services to China. What＇s more, they are both in a peri- od of ＂mutual transformation＂ . The Chinese economy is entering the financial capital stage and reducing the huge benefit delivered to the United States ＂free-riders＂ . Meanwhile the United States is undergoing a return to industry that is in competition with Chinese industrial capital. This transformation of the United States economy will lead to China increasingly bearing the costs of global financial crises. It will lead to a reversal of the geopolitical partnership between the two sides during the Cold War dominated by the United States in the 1970s as well as the cooperative economic relationship of the outward transfer of US industry of the 1990s. If China is in a position of economic crisis, it will be difficult to deal with the institutional cost of these ＂imported crises＂, and can only cope by transferring the cost internally. These potential cri- ses can be averted by incorporating ecological civilization and the integrated development of urban and rural areas as part of China＇s comprehensive national security strategy and using the support of local communi- ties to avert potential crises by means of a ＂soft landing＂ .