“十三五”时期中国人口发展面临的挑战与对策

Challenges Confronting Chinese Population Development in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period and Counter Measures

"十二五"时期中国人口持续保持低速增长,人口老龄化程度不断加深。预测表明,中国劳动年龄人口及比例将不断下降,人口老龄化将以世界上少有的速度快速提高,总人口将在2026年左右达到高峰后开始下降。"十三五"时期中国人口发展将面临人口结构失衡、劳动力供给下降、养老服务需求快速增长、城镇化转型等多方面的挑战。为应对这些挑战,必须尽快全面放开二孩生育,转变经济发展方式和开发人力资源,大力发展养老服务业,积极推进新型城镇化等。

In the 12th five-year plan period, total population in China grows at a low speed but population ageing develops very fast. Based on population forecast, Chinese total population will reach the peak in 2026 and then begin to decrease. Until 2050, the working-age population and its share in the total population will keep decreasing while the population ageing will develop at a rather high speed in the world. In the 13th five-year plan period, Chinese population development will face many challenges such as unbalanced population structure, decreasing labor supply, quickly growing demand for elderly services and transition of the urbanization etc. In order to meet these challenges, it＇s necessary to cancel birth control on the second child, to transform the economic development mode and develop human resources, to vigorously develop elderly services and promote the new-type urbanization.