发达经济“新常态”的根源和表现

The Causes and Characteristics of the New Normal State in Developed Economy

发达经济"新常态"的根源有两个,一是科技进步率下滑,二是凯恩斯主义需求管理的长期化和常态化。这导致发达经济长期在流动性陷阱中运行,量化宽松货币政策和财政政策成为宏观调控的主要手段。在这两个政策的作用下,经济可能会增长,但增长的质量却是下降的,经济健康状况恶化,对外来冲击的抵抗力减弱,患上了"肥胖症",经济将时刻面临债务危机、金融危机的威胁。要把发达经济从这种"新常态"中挽救出来,必须依靠科技革命。

Two factors have caused the New Normal State in developed economy, one is the decline in the rate of tech-nical progress, while the other is the long-term and normalized employment of Keynesian demand management.Consequently, the developed economy operates in liquidity trap over a long period of time, and quantitative eas-ing and fiscal policies become their main tools of macroeconomic management. With the use of these two kind of policies, relevant developed economies may grow, but the quality of growth declines, the health of economy deteriorates, the ability of economy in resisting various shocks is weakened, and the economy experiences 'obe-sity'. Their economies always face debt crisis and financial crisis. Revolution in science and technology is need-ed in order to rescue the developed economies from this kind of New Normal State.