基于时序全局主成分分析的稀土产业周期波动研究

Periodic Fluctuation of Rare Earth Industry Based on Sequential Global Principal Components Analysis

为了科学评价稀土产业周期波动和深入刻画稀土产业随时序变化的轨迹,本研究利用时序全局主成分分析方法寻找影响我国稀土产业周期波动的主成因,正确反映稀土产业周期波动,为正确做出稀土产业经济决策提供理论依据。通过研究发现,自1990~2013年,我国稀土产业景气周期大致经历了3个完整的周期。从主成分的综合影响度来看,就国内市场来说,对稀土产业景气周期影响大的因素依次是出口税率、国内消耗量、开采总量控制指标、氧化物价格、出口额、金属价格、生产总量、出口配额,而国外市场对稀土产业景气周期影响大的因素依次是出口量、生产总量、出口配额。其他因素综合影响较小。

In order to scientifically evaluate rare earth industry＇s periodic fluctuation and deeply depict the trajectory of rare earth with the change of sequence,the study used sequential global principal components analysis method to find main cause of influencing periodic fluctuation of rare earth industry in China,correctly reflected rare earth industry＇s periodic fluctuation,provided theoretical basis for correct economic decision-making of the industry. The study found that from 1990 to 2013,the climate cycle of rare earth industry in China experienced three complete cycles roughly. From the point of comprehensive effect of principal component,for the domestic market,the factors with significant influence to climate cycle of rare earth industry are export tax rate,domestic consumption,control index of total exploitation amount,oxide price,total exports,metal price,total production and export quotas in turn; For foreign market,the factors with significant influence to climate cycle of rare earth industry are exports,total production and export quotas in turn. The comprehensive effect of other factors was smaller.