中国经济增长速度放缓的原因是“结构性减速”吗?

Is China’s Economy Structural Decelerating?

自2008年以来,中国经济增长速度出现放缓的趋势。构建一个可分解到产业层面的经济增长核算分析框架,就三次产业劳动生产率、三次产业内部各生产要素和三次产业间劳动力再配置对2008—2013年经济增长的贡献率进行测算,可以发现：2008—2013年劳动力的产业间流动在总体上仍然是促进经济增长的因素;三次产业全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献率同时下降,是经济增长速度放缓的真正原因。这意味着,将中国经济增长速度放缓的原因归结为结构性减速是缺乏证据的。

Based on the sectoral growth accounting framework,this paper analyzes the structural and factor contribution in the deceleration of China＇s economy from 2008 to 2012. As compared with last deceleration since 1 978,it is found that：（1）China’s economic growth is accelerated rather than de-celerated by the development of service sector and the growth of services productivity during 2008 2012;（2）the contributions of TFP in all sectors were declined since 2008,which is the same as 1985 1 990 and 1 993 1 997; （3）the TFP growth slowdown in all the three sectors best explains the eco-nomic growth slowdown in 2008 2012. In conclusion,there is no evidence to suggest that China＇s economy is a structural decelerating since 2008.