动物疫病损失模型及治疗的经济评估模型构建

Establishment of Economic loss and Evaluation models for Animal Disease and its Treatment

借鉴国外在动物卫生经济学方面应用的成功经验,探讨养猪场疫病发生造成巨大经济损失问题。通过疫病对种猪生产性能和育肥猪生产能力的损害,从兽医角度与经济角度两个方面去考虑:剖析诸因素相互间的关系及对猪只的经济影响,构建适宜地数学模型,为不同疫病对猪只造成的不同经济损失进行计算。以决策树法建立治疗控制措施的经济评估模型,对患某一种疫病的猪只做出治疗与否的最优辅助决策。并以江苏某大型规模化猪场为案例,运用成本收益分析对猪场2010-2012年疫病防控投入与产出进行估算和衡量。提出防控资源配置优化的建议。

In order to investigate the economic losses caused by the disease,the mathematical model was set up to compute the different economic loss by the different disease through the evaluation of the relationships between various factors and the economic impact on pigs.Furthermore,the economic risk assessment model of treatment control measures was developed by decision tree method to make the best treatment decision of sick pigs.At the last,the cost-benefit analysis method was used to evaluate the input and output in disease prevention and control measures in large-scale farm at 2010-2012 years in Jiangsu,and a configuration optimization proposal of prevention and control resources was put forward thereby.