经济新常态下中国电力需求展望及煤电前景分析

Electricity Demand Projection and Coal Power Prospective under the New Normal of Chinese Economy

我国以煤为主的电力生产结构带来的生态环境问题日益突出,电力发展面临着一系列新问题和新挑战。在大气治理和二氧化碳峰值的双重约束下,电力行业必须找到适应经济新常态的可持续发展新路径。本文根据我国经济社会发展的动力特征构造了电力需求情景分析模型,对2015—2030年的电力需求进行了多情景分析。根据推荐的电力需求情景,以清洁高效发展煤电、大力发展非水可再生能源、积极发展水电、安全高效发展核电、适度发展气电为基本原则,进行了2015—2030年电源装机规划。结果表明,在经济发展新常态下,综合考虑电能替代和电力能效,电力需求在2020年将达到7.47万亿kWh,2030年达到9.73万亿kWh;煤电装机总规模有望在2020年达到峰值9.73亿kW,此后将进入长达10年的平台期。

Coal dominated generation mix has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues in China. Hence, the development of electric power sector is confronted with a series of new issues and challenges. Under the double constraints of air quality improvement and CO2 emission peak, the power sector must find out a new sustainable pathway adapted to new economy normal. In this paper, firstly an electricity demand model is proposed based upon China＇s social economic dynamics and used for multi-scenario analysis. According to the recommended scenario, power generation planning covering 2015-2030 is conducted, with cleanly developing coal power, rapidly developing renewable energy, actively developing hydropower, safely and efficiently developing nuclear power, and properly developing gas power as the guiding principles. The results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7470TWh in 2020 and 9730TWh in 2030; coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at 973GW and then enter a 10-year plateau.