工资增长推升了通货膨胀水平吗?——来自省级面板数据的证据

Is Chinese Wage Increasing Pushing up Inflation? An Evidence from Provincial Panel Data

通过分析名义工资和实际工资对通货膨胀的作用机制,认为刘易斯拐点的到来、人口结构老龄化和政策因素驱动我国实际工资增长,并构成长期通货膨胀压力。基于2001—2012年省级面板数据发现:实际工资与GDP平减指数(10%显著水平)、消费者价格指数(1%显著水平)、商品房销售价格(1%显著水平)显著正相关,表明实际工资增长不但从成本方面推升了通货膨胀,还通过直接扩张需求、在消费者信贷市场上承担"资本品"功能和杠杆效应,从需求方面拉升通货膨胀。在房地产市场上,房地产价格的看涨预期、工资增长导致的按揭能力增强和银行住房贷款增长,构成了一个重要的工资—通货膨胀循环传导机制。

This paper clarifies the mechanism of nominal and real wage inflation. The real wage growth in China pushed up by the arrival of Lewis a point, population aging and policy factors, increases longterm inflation pressure. Based on the provincial-level panel data from 2001 to 2012, we find that the real wage positively correlated with GDP deflator （10% level）, CPI （1% level）, and commercial housing sales price （1% level）, that shows that real wage growth not only pushes up inflation in terms of cost, also through direct expansion of demand, in the consumer credit market can take on ＂capital goods＂ function and have the leverage effect, pulls up inflation. In the real estate market, real estate prices bullish, wage growth has led to enhanced capacity of the mortgage and home loan bank growth, form an important wage-inflation cycle.