信息化在“四化”发展中的贡献度研究——以河南省为例

Research on Contribution of Informatization to the Development of “Four Modernizations”——A Case Study of Henan Province

利用河南省1979-2013年"四化"发展水平的时间序列数据,构建向量自回归模型,通过协整分析、脉冲响应及方差分解分析对信息化在"四化"发展过程中的贡献进行实证分析。结果表明:长期看,"四化"之间存在协整关系,信息化对工业现代化作用不明显,对农业现代化和城镇化促进作用显著,贡献度大;短期看,信息化对城镇化带动促进作用不明显,对工业现代化和农业现代化促进作用明显,且工业化对信息化有反向促进作用。

Based on the statistical data of the development level of ＂four modernizations＂ in Henan Province from 1994 to 2013, this paper establishes a vector auto regression model, which presents an empirical study on the contribution of informatization to the development of ＂four modernizations＂ by co-integration analysis, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. The results show that in the long term there is a co-integration relationship among ＂four modernizations＂, and informatization has a weak role in the development of industrialization, but has a leading role in agricultural modernization and urbanization ; in the short term informatization has a weak role in leading urbanization, but has a leading role in the promotion of industrialization and agricultural modernization, and industrialization has a converse promoting role on informatization.