对外贸易的就业效应研究——基于山东省的实证分析

Research on Employment Effect of Foreign Trade——An Empirical Analysis Based on Shandong Province

利用灰色关联分析法和回归分析法实证研究了对外贸易发展对山东省就业的影响,结果表明,山东省就业水平与对外贸易发展之间存在高度相关性。回归分析及格兰杰因果关系检验结果表明,进出口总额、出口结构及进口结构对山东省就业水平具有显著性影响,其中进口结构和进出口总额是就业水平的同向影响变量,而出口结构是反向影响变量。

The paper makes an empirical analysis on the influences of foreign trade development on the employment in Shandong Province by Grey Correlation Analysis and Regression Analysis. The result shows that there is a high correlation between foreign trade development and employment levels. Regression Analysis and Granger Causality Test show that the total amount of import and export, export structure and import structure have a significant impact on the employment levels in Shandong Province, among which the import structure and the total amount of trade are the positive effect variables of employment levels, and the export structure is the negative effect variable.