工薪所得免征额还应继续提高吗?——来自中国个税微观CGE模型的验证

Should the Exemption of Personal Income Tax Continue to Increase?——An Analysis Based on Micro Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)

本文借鉴可计算一般均衡微观模拟的方法,利用CFPS2010基线调查数据将受免征额调整直接影响的工薪阶层进行微观处理,并以此为基础通过灵活分组对比分析了新旧税制下免征额调整对工薪阶层福利改善和收入分配状况调节情况。结果发现,即便免征额不进行调整,七级累进税制已经能够很好的发挥福利改善和收入分配调节的功能。然而我国工薪阶层的收入结构使得免征额的累进性在现行税制下明显弱化,免征额能够发挥的调节作用已经有限。同时,免征额调高在福利改善方面存在纵向的不公平,而统一的免征额设定也不利于区域间的横向公平。新税制使得纵向不公平更加"等级分明",横向不公平有所加剧。因此,无论是从效率还是公平的角度来看,目前不宜将目光过多的放在免征额是否进一步的提高上,个人所得税更需要税制结构上的改革。

In this paper, we apply Computable General Equilibrium Micro-Simulation Approach （CGE-MSA）, in order to investigate the change of welfare and income distribution of working-class after the improvement of the exemption. The establishment of the model is based on flexible grouping the working-class, and with the help of CFPS2010 baseline survey data, we introduce micro data into the mod- el successfully. Main conclusion from this study is that the progressive of exemption has decreased significantly under the current tax sys- tem, regardless of whether it is for the degree of welfare improvement or the ability of income distribution. If the revenue structure of working class will not have big change, the regulation effect of exemption will be limited. Moreover, the degree of welfare improvement will be lower with higher levels of economic development, and unified exemption may have negative impact on inequity in underdeveloped areas. Therefore, the personal income tax need to make fundamental changes in the tax system, and excessively concerned about raising the exemption amount is unnecessary.