基于Markov链的兰州市土地利用结构研究

Research on the Land Use Structure of Lanzhou Based on Markov Chains

随着城市的发展和人口的增多,土地资源成为兰州市发展的制约因素。根据兰州市2005年和2010年的遥感影像图,利用Markov模型对兰州市的土地利用结构类型进行研究,并对2020年的土地利用结构进行预测。结果表明:2020年末,建设用地、耕地和林地的面积持续增加;园地、其农用地和水域的面积持续减少。建设用地不断扩张,而园地、其他农用地和水域面积的不断退化,土地利用结构的变化将严重影响兰州市的生态景观格局。今后的土地利用过程中应适当增加其他农用地和园地的比例,对较好的农业用地加强保护,合理调整土地利用结构,提高原有建设用地的利用率,从而实现土地资源的合理高效利用。

With the increasing development of city and population, land resources become the restricting factors for development of Lanzhou city . Under the support of GIS technology, the study is made by using the narkov model of Lanzhou city＇s land use structure types,basing on the remote sensing images in 2005 and 2010 of Lanzhou City, and so island use structure prediction in 2020.The results show that： at the end of 2020, the area of construction land, cultivated land and woodland would increase; garden land, the area of agricultural lamt and water continue to decrease.Construction land expansion, but the area of garden, other agricultural land and water continuous degradation, land use structure change will seriously affect the ecological landscape pattern of Lanzhou city.In the future,the proportion of other agricultural land and garden land should be appropriate increased during land use process, so as to realize the reasonable utilization of land resources ,we also should strengthen the protection of good agricultural land, reasonably adjust the structure of land use, improve the land utilization ratio of original construction.