中美经济周期的协动性:基于马尔科夫区制转移模型的研究

The Business Cycle Co-movements of China and the USA:Based on Markov Regime-switching Models

中国经济"新常态"以及美国经济的发展走势是当前整个世界关注的焦点。本文通过建立中美两国经济周期波动的马尔科夫区制转移模型进行估计,结果表明中美两国经济周期的波动存在具有明显协动性的区制,且两国经济周期的波动区制都具有较强的"自维持"特征。但当前中美两国经济周期的波动区制也表现出了明显不同的特点:中国经济周期正处于受美国经济"冲击波动"的区制,经济增长的"自律性"有所减弱;而美国经济周期则正处于"自律波动"区制。这意味着当前美国经济的复苏向好有助于拉动中国经济增长,而中国经济增速放缓的"新常态"对美国经济的负面影响并不明显。

At present, the economic ＂New Normal ＂ of China and the economic devel- opment situation of the USA are the focus of the world. In this paper we establish Markov regime-switching models to estimate the business cycles fluctuation of China and the USA. The results show that there is obvious co-movement in the business cycles fluctuation of China and the USA and the business cycle regimes of the two countries have stronger self- persistence characteristics. However, the current business cycle fluctuation regimes of China and the USA also have obviously different characteristics： The business cycle of China is in the shock-fluctuation regime and the self-discipline of economic growth is weak to some extent, while the business cycle of the USA is in the self-discipline-fluctuation regime. This implies that the current economic recovery of the USA helps fuel China＇s eco- nomic growth, and the ＂New Normal ＂ of Chinese slower economic growth has little negative effect on the USA.