美元弱势调整会造成中国对东盟国家贸易偏转吗?

Does A Weakening US Dollar Cause the Trade Deflection from China to ASEAN Countries

美元弱势调整推高了中国外贸成本,这会造成中国对东盟国家贸易偏转吗?本文统计分析和面板Tobit模型估计表明:(1)美元弱势调整下中国对美出口占比渐失的份额确实导致中国向东盟国家同类产品的出口偏转,同期东盟国家也明显增加了向中国的出口份额。美元走弱下中国对东盟国家呈很高的产品贸易互补性和较低的产品贸易竞争性。(2)美元走弱下人民币兑东盟国家货币实际升值会减小中国向东盟国家产品出口占比,并没有提高中国从东盟国家产品进口占比。同期,美元弱势调整本身会造成中国向东盟国家产品出口偏转,但减小中国从东盟国家产品进口占比。(3)中国与东盟国家间关税削减会显著增进中国向东盟国家产品贸易偏转,中国和东盟国家间经济增长也是如此。据此,中国与东盟国家间贸易发展是互补式贸易合作,中国和东盟国家积极建设中国—东盟自贸区大市场平台,大幅削减关税,并实施货币互换来保持汇率稳定,这将极大地提升中国与东盟国家间经贸发展。

A weakening US dollar has propelled the rise of China＇s foreign trade cost, and does it cause the trade deflection from China to ASEAN Countries？ This paper uses statistical analysis and panel Tobit model estimation to show that firstly, along with a weakening US dollar, the dwindling market share of China＇s export to the US brings about China＇s export deflection of the same goods to ASEAN countries, while ASEAN countries increase the share of export to China also. There appears high trade complementarity of goods between China and ASEAN countries, whereas appears low trade competition of goods, following with the weakening US dollar. Sec- ondly, with the weakening US dollar, the real appreciation of RMB against ASEAN currencies can reduce the export share of China＇s goods to ASEAN countries, and does not promote China＇s import share of goods from ASEAN countries. Meanwhile, a weakening US dollar itself causes the increase in China＇s export share of goods to ASEAN countries, whereas causing the decrease in China＇s import share of goods from them. Thirdly, the tariff reduction between China and ASEAN countries can significantly enhance the trade deflection of China＇s goods to ASEAN countries. So does the economic growth between China and ASEAN countries. Therefore, it is truly complementary trade cooperation for the trade development between China and ASEAN countries. The fact that China and ASEAN countries are actively establishing the unified large market through Sino-ASEAN free trade area, largely cutting down tariff rate, and adopting currency swap to keep bilateral exchange rate stable, will largely promote the development of economy and trade between China and ASEAN countries.