火箭助飞鱼雷不同齐射方式下的捕获概率分析

Analysis of Acquisition Probability of Rocket-assisted Torpedo in Different Salvo Modes

针对火箭助飞鱼雷打击远距离目标时捕获概率大幅下降的问题,依据其对目标搜索方式及反潜作战的特点,提出了一种与传统"同一点齐射"不同的"人工散布齐射"方式;并基于全概率的基本思想,构建了描述两种齐射方式捕获概率的数学解析模型;计算了打击目标前置点和现在点两种典型作战样式下,二者在不同射击距离上的捕获概率。计算值与仿真实验结果吻合良好,表明在远距离上打击目标现在点时,人工散布齐射的捕获概率优于同一点齐射。

The acquisition probability declines dramatically when the rocket-assisted torpedoes attack a distant target. To solve this problem,the salvo mode of artificial scatter,which is different from traditional salvo,is presented according to the searching mode of rocket-assisted torpedo and the features of antisubmarine operation. The analytical models for two kinds of salvo modes are developed based on the basic idea of total probability. The acquisition probabilities at different shooting ranges under the operation modes of attacking the prepositive point and current point of torpedo are calculated by two models,respectively. The results agree well with the simulation test results. When the current point shooting mode is adopted,the acquisition probability using the salvo mode of artificial scatter is higher than that by traditional salvo at long shooting range.