摘要
运用系统聚类与K-均值聚类相结合的分析方法对全国31个省市自治区进行基于环境污染数据的集群分类。然后采用面板模型中的变系数模型与变截距模型,以24个省份2006—2011年的煤炭、焦炭、原油、燃料油、汽油、煤油、柴油和天然气消费量作为原始数据,分析不同组别各类能源的消费平均水平和消费倾向。研究表明,虽然污染程度变化滞后于能源消费倾向变化,但能源消费倾向变化可能会引起污染程度变化;能源消费倾向与环境污染程度呈负相关;地区能源消费特征与其产业结构、资源丰富程度有关,经济发展水平高、产业结构以集约型为主的地区能源消费强度和能源消费倾向比较低,反之则较高。最后,基于能源消费特征提出了一些协同节能环保的政策建议。
This paper classifies China＇s 31 provinces in terms of their environmental pollution by means of system clustering and K-mean clustering, and applies variable coefficient model and variable intercept model of panel model to analyze the average energy consumption level and trend based on 24 provinces＇ coal, coking coal, crude oil, fuel oil, gasoline, kerosene, diesel and gas consumption data of 2006-2011. Results show pollution extent changes after energy consumption trend, but the latter can change the former. Energy consumption trend is negatively related to environmental pollution extent. Regional energy consumption characteristics are connected with its industrial structure and resources abundance. Energy consumption intensity and trend display low in the region with a higher economic level and an intensive industrial structure. Suggestions are presented on environmental protection policies based on energy consumption characteristics.
出处
《资源与产业》
2015年第4期75-81,共7页
Resources & Industries
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71273026)
关键词
能源消费特征
环境污染
聚类分析
面板模型
energy consumption characteristics
environmental pollution
clustering analysis
panel model
