韵律法在气象预报中的应用分析

Analysis on the Application of the Rhythmical Method in Weather Forecast

简要介绍了韵律法的概念和关于韵律的一些观点,利用朔州市朔城区4年的日平均气温、日平均气压资料,用150天韵律对某一类气压、气温的开端特征预报降水过程。结果表明:用此方法做降水和大风天气过程预报准确率较高。由此可以引申出,运用此法可以将中期预报的预报时限延伸至150天,也可将此法运用于短期气候预测中。

This paper briefly introduces the putting forward of the rhythmical method and some opinions on the rhythm,and by using the data of four years＇ daily average air temperature and daily average air pressure of Shuocheng District of Shuozhou City, forecasts the precipitation process of a certain kind of air temperature and air pressure beginning characteristics based on 150 day＇s rhythm. The results indicate that the accuracy of this method is higher in forecasting the rainfall and strong wind weather processes. And this can lead to that this method can expand the time limit of medium-term weather forecast to 150 days, and also can apply this method to short-term climate prediction.