中国人口自均衡发展态势与人口政策调整

Analysis of Balanced Development Tendency of Population in China and Population Policy Adjustment

人口均衡发展是科学发展观指导下人口理论的创新与发展,而人口自身的均衡则是实现人口长期均衡的前提。通过人口预测参数设计分别模拟"现状""由现状逐步调整到理想状态"及"理想状态"三种方案,对中国人口的中长期发展态势进行预测分析,结果表明:由于庞大的人口基数和人口生产自身的惯性作用,中国人口在中期(2050年以前)的基本发展态势基本不会受到人口政策或其他经济社会因素的影响;但从长期(2050—2100年)来看,尽早实现总和生育率达到世代更替水平会极大地缓解长期的人口结构压力,尤其是超老龄化压力。要实现我国人口长期均衡发展,由"单独二孩"向"全面二孩"过渡的人口发展规划应尽早纳入顶层设计,同时积极应对人口超老龄化的相关政策也应纳入议事日程。

Balanced development of population is demographic theoretical innovation and development under the guidance of the scientific development concepts and the balance of population itself is the precondition of long-term equilibrium population. Based on different population prediction parameters,this paper designs three kinds of forecast schemes to simulate the state quo,adjustment from the state quo to ideal situation and ideal situation,and forecasts the medium and long-term development tendency of China＇s population situation. The results show that the basic development tendency of population of China in the medium term（ before 2050） won＇t be impacted by policy and other economic and social factors. While in the long run（ 2050-2100）,total fertility rate reaches generation replacement level as soon as possible will greatly reduce the long-term pressure of the population structure,especially the super aging population pressure. In order to realize the long-term balanced development of population,we should plan the top-level design to open a two-child per family policy or even cancel the birth limitation policy as soon as possible,and super aging policy response at the same time should also be included in the agenda.