中国西部地区经济增长收敛性研究——基于产出和收入双维度和多时段的SPDM模型检验

A Study on the Convergence of Economic Growth in Western China——Empirical Test Based on Output and Income Dimensions and SPDM

基于空间面板数据模型(SPDM)理论与方法,从经济产出与居民收入两个维度,分别对1978—2013年及1978—1992年和1992—2013年三个时段中国西部12省区的经济增长收敛性进行实证检验,研究发现:人均产出在各研究时段上均不存在绝对β收敛,城镇居民收入较农村居民收入的地区差距具有更强的发散性;不论人均产出还是人均收入,在1992—2013年期间均呈现出显著的地区发散性,经济差距呈现出持续扩大趋势;经济产出与居民收入均具有显著的空间示范效应与空间传递效应,地区经济发展和经济冲击对邻近地区影响显著。新一轮西部大开发在提升西部地区经济整体发展水平、缩小东西部差距的同时,也应不断缩小西部地区内部省区间的经济差距,加快城镇化进程和促进地区经济合作有利于西部地区经济差距的缩小。

Based on the theory and method of spatial panel data model（ SPDM）,this paper makes an empirical test on the convergence of economic growth of 12 provinces in western China,by two dimensions of economic output and resident income under three stages respectively,1978-2013,1978-1992 and 1992-2013. The results show that for output,per capita output at different stages has no absolute β convergence; for resident income,the regional disparity of urban residents＇ income is more divergent than that of rural residents. In the period of from 1992 to2013,no matter output per capita or income per capita is significantly divergent,and the economic disparity tends large. The economic output and resident income have significant spacial demonstration effect and spacial transferring effect,which means regional economic development and exogenous shock have significant effect on adjacent areas. When the overall western economic development is promoted in the new round and the gap between the East and the West is narrowed,the gap among provinces in the West also should be narrowed. The acceleration of urbanization process and the promotion of regional economic cooperation is helpful to bridge the gap among provinces in the West.