国际资本流动冲击有利于经济增长吗

Do International Capital Flow Shocks Have Positive Effects on Economic Growth

本文估算并应用潜在产出描述经济增长,尝试从国际合作角度设定动态结构面板向量自回归模型,识别自发性国际资本流动的综合性结构冲击,并进一步分解为共同冲击和特有冲击,提出研究国际资本流动冲击对经济增长影响的计量思路,以金砖国家为例进行实证分析。研究发现:国际资本流动冲击对金砖国家经济增长的效应因资本账户开放进程而异,但对金砖国家整体经济增长存在正效应,且不为金砖各国之间的资本流动冲击所扰;将金砖国家视为以国际合作形式联合的整体进行计量分析是可行且有经济意义的。中国应推进包括金砖国家在内的全方位南南合作,不断完善资本账户开放条件,分散国际资本流动冲击并使其有利于各国长期共同发展。

Taking BRICS as an example,This paper builds a dynamic structural panel VAR model from the perspective of international cooperation by estimating the potential output as an indicator of economic growth to identify and decompose the structural composite shocks of autonomous international capital flowing into the common shocks shared by all members and the member-specific idiosyncratic shocks, and develops econometric ideas to analyze the economic effects of international capital flow shocks. Evidences show that the international capital flow shocks have divergent effects on individual countries varying with capital liberalization progress,but have persistent positive effects on the integrated BRICS,which cannot be disturbed by specific shocks. The results imply that the model we builds is feasible and meaningful. China should promote South-South cooperation to diversify capital flow shocks and realize common development.