基于粒子群算法的燃气管线泄漏疏散能力分析

Analysis on evacuation capability in leakage accident of gas pipeline based on particle swarm algorithm

为研究燃气管线泄漏事故人员疏散能力,统计分析近年国内燃气泄漏典型事故,得出第三方违章作业施工为燃气泄漏事故比例最高的直接原因及燃气泄漏事故伤亡人数发展趋势,在此基础上,引入粒子群PSO算法,以某施工引起的燃气管线泄漏事故为实例,研究领导者的领导能力和应急处置能力对员工之间信息交流及人员应急疏散能力的影响。分析实例显示现场领导者学习因子偏低,指挥能力差,直接影响事故现场的应急疏散自救行为,甚至改变疏散路径。并进一步分析模拟得出,学习因子提高后,现场领导者和员工的信息更新与交换效率大幅提升,应急疏散能力随之提高,进而提出实用性对策措施和建议,为提升燃气管线泄漏事故应急疏散能力提供技术参考。

To research the evacuation capability in leakage accident of gas pipeline,on the basis of analysis and statistics of domestic gas leakage accidents in recent years,the result that the illegal construction of third party is the direct cause with the highest proportion of gas leakage accidents was obtained,as well as the development trend of casualties in the accidents. Through introducing the particle swarm PSO algorithm,and taking a leakage accident of gas pipeline caused by construction as practical case,the influence by leadership and emergency disposal abilities of leaders to the information exchange of staff and emergency evacuation capacity were studied. It showed that the lower study factors and poor commanding ability of the in- situ leader directly affects the emergency evacuation self- help behavior in accident site,and even changes the evacuation path. By further analysis and simulation,it showed that after the study factors increase,the information update and exchange efficiently of in- situ leader and employee increase greatly,and the emergency evacuation capacity increases accordingly. The practical countermeasures and suggestions were proposed,which provides technical reference for enhancing the emergency evacuation capability in leakage accident of gas pipeline.