资源型城市转型系统仿真——以招远市为例

Systematic research of transformation in resources-based cities: A case of Zhaoyuan

近年来,伴随着经济结构调整及能源资源告急等国际形势,资源型城市未来的发展前景堪忧。在此背景下,文中从系统论的角度出发,借鉴可持续发展理念,在研究城市系统内各个子系统间因果反馈关系的基础之上,构建资源型城市SD仿真模型。同时以我国重要黄金产地招远市为例,利用参数的不同组合,规划模拟多种模式,运用vensim软件对城市六种主要发展模式进行动态量化。通过仿真模拟与政策调控,结果表明协调发展模式对于招远市来说最为适合。

In recent years,with the international situation of energy resources exhaustion and economic structure adjustment,the future development prospects are grim. In this background,we viewed questions from the angle of system theory,used the thought of sustainable development for reference to construct a system dynamics model for resource- based cities based on the study of the causal feedback relationships between each subsystem in the urban system. In the meanwhile,Zhaoyuan City,which is an important gold producing area in China,was taken as an example. Different parameter combinations were utilized,and various modes were planned for Zhaoyuan City. Besides,vensim software was used for dynamic quantitative of the six major development model in Zhaoyuan City. Through analogue simulation and policy regulation,it was demonstrated that the sustainable development model is the most appropriate for Zhaoyuan City.