亚太安全架构的未来图景--路径差异与模式谱系

Prospects of an Asia-Pacific Security Framework: Path Difference and Spectrum of Models

当前亚太地区的安全挑战主要有三类,即残余的冷战结构、结构性的战略冲突以及非传统安全问题。这三类安全问题本属于不同的历史时段,却同时出现在亚太空间中,从而造成了复杂的系统性安全困局。因此,是否具备同时处理三类不同属性的安全问题的能力,就成为评估和判断未来安全架构有效性与可行性的基本标准。由于亚太各国在冲突根源、理论准备、核心基础、建设目标和基本原则等安全架构建设的关键点上存在明显的分歧,必然导致在安全架构的建设过程中展现出明显的路径差异,最终形成六种典型的亚太地区安全模式,分别是同盟体系模式、东亚峰会模式、中美共治模式、亚信会议模式、次区域协调模式及东盟主导模式。根据以安全问题的类别和属性为基础生成的评估标准,对这六种模式、进行二维空间的落点象限排布,可以简单勾勒出未来亚太安全架构的基本谱系,从而对其未来发展图景进行宏观判断。

The current security challenges in the Asia-Pacific region come from threedirections: the remnants of the Cold War structure, structural strategic conflict, and non-traditional security issues. These security problems, with different timeframes, appear in the Asia-Pacific region simultaneously and result in a complex systemic security dilemma. Therefore, the basic standard to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of the future security framework is the ability to deal with all the three types of security issues at the same time. Since Asia-Pacific countries have obvious different attitudes on the key issues such as the root of security problems, basic theory, core structure, target of construction, and basic principles, different countries in the process of building the security framework will inevitably result in path difference. Six models of regional security architecture are now taking shape in the Asia-Pacific region: the alliance system model, EAS model, Sino-American joint governance model, CICA model, sub-regional coordination model, and ASEAN-led model. Base on the assessment of their efficacy, the author depicts the basic spectrum of models of the Asia-Pacific security framework, in order to forecast its future evolution.