中国慢性病群体的长寿风险量化分析与应用被引量：4

The Quantitative Analysis of the Longevity Risk of Chromic Patients in China and Its Application

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摘要对中国慢性病群体的长寿风险进行了分析。在对慢性病群体的慢性病发生率和死亡率进行统计后,论文利用Lee-Carter模型和死亡率分解模型对数据进行了不同角度的分析,发现慢性病发生率呈现上升趋势,而死亡率呈现下降趋势,且通过与普通群体对比,发现长寿风险更加明显超过平均水平,论文对此进行了解释。同时基于分析结果和模型,从保险创新角度提出了"慢性病群体"保险产品的定价策略,并给出了应用建议。 The paper did some work to analyze longevity risk of Chinese groups with general cnromc mseases. After obtaining the morbidity and mortality rates of general chronic diseases, it applied the Lee-Carter model and mortality decomposition model to analyze this data set from different perspectives. The findings were that the mor- bidity risk of chronic patients was on the rise while the mortality rate of this group declined. The paper also com- pared the results with the normal group and found that the longevity risk of chronic patients was higher than the av- erage level. The paper offered some explanation for this phenomenon. Based on these findings and the abovemen- tioned models, the paper put forth some suggestions on the pricing strategy for insurance products targeted at chronic patients and other applications of the research results.

作者张宁

机构地区中央财经大学中国精算研究院/保险学院

出处《保险研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2015年第6期9-18,共10页 Insurance Studies

基金教育部留学归国人员科研启动基金教育部人文社科基地重点项目(编号:11JJD790004) 中国保险学会教保人身保险高校课题研究基金资助课题(编号:jiaobao2013-3)资助中央财经大学青年创新团队项目(第三批)支持

关键词慢性病长寿风险 Lee-Carter模型死亡率分解模型 longevity risk general chronic diseases Lee-Carter model mortality decomposition model

分类号 F840.62 [经济管理—保险]

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参考文献11

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