辽宁省城乡居民收入与GDP增长的相关性分析

Correlation Analysis of Liaoning Province Urban and Rural Residents' Income and the Growth of GDP

研究了辽宁省1980—2012年城镇居民人均收入增长指数数据、农村居民人均收入增长指数数据与辽宁省GDP增长指数数据之间的关系,从整体与局部的角度和相关系数得出了三者之间的关联特征,并进一步建立了变量间的向量自回归模型,通过脉冲响应函数探讨了三者之间的动态联系。研究结果表明,辽宁省GDP增长率与城镇居民人均收入增长率、农村居民人均收入增长率之间具有密切的相关性,但变化趋势存在不同步性;从三者之间的动态联系来看,辽宁省GDP增长率对城镇居民人均收入和农村居民人均收入的增长有明显的促进作用,而城镇居民人均收入和农村居民人均收入的增长率对GDP增长率的冲击不大。应采取有效措施,缩小城乡居民人均收入差距,努力实现城乡居民人均收入与GDP的同步增长。

Index data of Liaoning province from 1 980 to 2012 in urban and rural resident per capita income and GDP growth was analyzed.From the overall and local angle and correlation coefficients correlation characteristics between the three were obtained,and further the autoregressive model of vector variables was established,and the impulse response function was used to investigate the dynamic relationship between the three.The research results showed that there was a close correlation between GDP growth and urban and rural income growth,but the trends did not synchronized;from the perspective of dynamic link between the three,GDP growth in Liaoning province had a clear role in promoting urban and rural income growth,however the income increase of urban and rural residents had no obvious role on GDP the growth.And the effective measures should be taken to narrow the gap between city and countryside,and strive to achieve synchronous growth of income and GDP .