社会支出与“中等收入陷阱”——基于国际比较的视角

Social Expenditure and the Middle-Income Trap:A Study From the Perspective of International Comparison

通过比较一些国家由中等收入阶段向高收入阶段跨越时社会支出结构和支出水平的变化情况。我们发现社会支出结构、支出水平与收入分配差距和国内消费需求存在正相关的关系。这揭示了社会支出与"中等收入陷阱"相互作用的内在机理及其在确保跨越"中等收入陷阱"中发挥的基础性作用。因此,尽管社会支出不是决定一国能否成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的唯一因素,但有效的社会支出水平是保障跨越"中等收入陷阱"必不可少的政策选择。

On the basis of social expenditure theory, this article analyzes the influence of the structure and level of social expenditure on economic development through comparing the social expenditures among European, North American, Latin-American and East Asian countries while they develop from the middle-income stage to high-income stage. It shows that the structure and level of social expenditure is correlated with social security, distribution gap and domestic demand, which means that the higher the level of social expenditure is, the higher the level of social security, the smaller the income distribution gap, and the bigger the stimulation on domestic demand. This reflects the mechanism of interaction between social expenditure and middle-income trap, and the basic role played by social expenditure in crossing the middle-income trap. Therefore, though social expenditure is not the only element for a country to step over middle-income trap, it is an inevitable policy choice.