青岛世园会交通预调查及客流预测方法研究

Traffic Pre-Survey and Passenger Flow Forecast Method of Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition

基于青岛世园会(世界园艺博览会)实践,探索一种支撑大型活动客流预测的交通预调查方法。在参观意向调查、现状调查和类比调查3大类调查结果的基础上,以客流规模预测为目标导向,建立世园会交通预调查关键指标体系,并阐述各项调查的主要内容。基于面向本地常住人口、外地一日客、外地住宿客3类客流群体的大规模意愿调查结果,在客流分类及其出行链分析的基础上,提出基于交通预调查的世园会意向客流规模预测方法。结合同类大型活动客流规模类比分析,考虑可能的鼓励政策,制定世园会客流预测技术路线。研究表明:大型活动交通预调查应以客流预测为目标制定关键调查指标体系,在此基础上开展不同群体意向客流规模预测,并通过类比同类大型活动加以修正得到最终预测结果。

With the practice of Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition, the method of traffic pre-survey aiming to support the passenger flow forecast for large-scale activities was explored. On the basis of intention survey, present situation survey and analogy survey, the pre-survey index system was established and the main survey content were introduced with the passenger flow forecast as a guide. Sev- eral intention surveys had been carried out oriented to different passenger objects which were local resi- dents, nonlocal tourists for one-day trip, nonlocal tourists for accommodation. The intention passenger flow forecast method of International Horticultural Exposition was put forward according to the traffic pre-survey, based on the passenger classification and trip chain analysis. Combined with the analogy analysis of similar large-scale activities and considering possible incentives, the technical route of pas- senger flow forecast on International Horticultural Exposition was studied. The study shows that the traf- fic pre-survey of large-scale activities should establish the key survey index system oriented to passen- ger flow forecast. The survey result could be applied to intention passenger flow forecast, and it could get the final forecast result by the check of analogy analysis.