水旱灾害对我国粮食产能影响的时间变化特征分析

The Evolution of Flood and Drought in China and Their Impact on Grain Production

研究农业气象灾害与农业生产的相关关系对保障粮食安全具有积极作用,本文利用1991至2012年间全国农业气象灾害和粮食生产数据,分析了旱灾、水灾两种主要农业气象灾害的变化趋势,探讨了不同种类灾害对我国粮食生产的影响,对气象灾害受灾成灾面积与粮食单产之间的关联度进行了分析。结果表明:受灾面积呈下降趋势,且水灾受灾面积与旱灾受灾面积呈现出比较明显的反向变动特征;成灾面积虽也呈下降趋势,但水灾成灾面积与旱灾成灾面积逐渐呈现出同步波动趋势;农业水旱灾害呈明显周期性波动,且干旱致灾强度的年际波动较大;谷物单产与水旱灾害受灾面积、成灾面积等指标显著负相关。

Meteorological disasters have a great impact on agricultural production and safety. We therefore analyzed the main trend of the two primary meteorological hazards, floods and droughts, and their influences on grain yield and the total agricultural output by using the census data from 1991 to 2012. When considering grain yield, total planting area is indeed a factor that cannot be ignored. Thus, in this paper, we discussed the correlation relationship between meteorological disasters and the grain yield per unit. The result shows that the total amount of affected area declines, while the affected area caused by floods changes in the opposite direction of that caused by droughts. Meanwhile, the total inundated area also witnessed a downward trend, while the inundated area caused by these two disasters turns to change in the same direction recently. The yearly occurrence of floods and droughts had a cyclical fluctuation. Compared with floods, droughts would be a bigger threat to future Chinese grain security. And the grain yield per unit is significantly negative to the affected area caused by meteorological disasters.