贵州省水土流失与社会经济相关性分析

Correlation Analysis on Soil Erosion and Socioeconomic Development in Guizhou

贵州喀斯特生态脆弱,水土流失和贫穷形势严峻,探究水土流失与社会经济的关系,对当地生态环境改善和社会经济可持续发展意义重大。以水土流失数据和社会经济数据作为主要信息源,选取人口、经济发展、土地利用和城市发展4个方面的社会经济指标,利用ArcGIS和GeoDa软件,对水土流失及各指标因子进行空间相关性检验,再建立经典线性回归模型、空间滞后模型和空间误差模型,并对三个模型进行对比分析。结论如下:(1)空间分析结果显示,水土流失的空间自相关性较强,水田和旱地对水土流失影响不一致;(2)三个模型对比,空间滞后模型的拟合度最优,解释能力最强。

Because of fragile ecology in Guizhou karst area, the soil and water loss and poverty situation in the study area are serious. Exploring the relationship between soil erosion and socioeconomic development fac lots is of great significance to improve the local ecological environment and to guarantee the sustainable de- velopment of society and economy. Based on the soil and water loss data and socioeconomic data as the prima ry information, using GeoDa and ArcGIS software, four species socioeconomic indexes（population, economic development, land use and city development） were selected in this research to check the spatial correlation of soil erosion and each factor; to develop the classical linear regression model, spatial lag model and spatial er rot model and to make a comparison among three models. The conclusions are as following. （1） The spatial analysis showed that the spatial autocorrelation of soil erosion was significant. The effect of paddy field on lhe soil erosion was different from dry land. （2） Spatial lag model is the best, having the strongesl explana- tory function.