海峡西岸经济区区域物流需求量趋势研究

Study on the Trend of Regional Logistics Demand Quantity on the West Side of the Straits Economic Zone

区域物流需求预测是区域物流规划、物流资源合理配置过程的重要环节。在构建海峡西岸经济区区域物流需求量预测因子指标体系的基础上,选择GM(1,1)模型、多元线性回归模型和逐步回归模型分别进行区域物流需求量预测模拟。结果表明GM(1,1)模型预测精度较高,预测效果较好,进而采用该模型对海峡西岸经济区近期2020年和远期2050年的物流需求量进行预测,预测结果显示该区域近期和远期物流需求量分别为188659.26万t、4109031.162万t。文中为海峡西岸经济区区域物流的规划与管理提供一定的科学依据。

Regional logistics demand forecasting is an important part of the regional logistics planning and the logistics resources allocation process.In the construction of regional logistics demand forecasting based on the west side of the Straits Economic Zone factor index system,choosing the GM（1,1） model,multiple linear regression model and the stepwise regression model for regional logistics demand forecasting simulation respectively.The results show that the GM（1,1） model has high prediction precision,good prediction effect,and then by using the model of the channel West Bank Economic Zone in recent 2020 and forward 2050 logistics demand forecasting,the prediction results show that the short-term and long-term demand for logistics is 1.8865926 billion t,41.09031162 billion t respectively.This paper provide certain scientific basis for the planning and management of logistics to Regional Economic Zone on the west side of the Straits.