制度质量、金融发展对不同资本项目流动的非线性影响——基于跨国面板数据的分析

Nonlinear Effects of Institution Quality and Financial Development on Different Capital Accounts-Based on Transnational Panel Data

本文运用门限效应模型对2005-2012年间64个国家(地区)FDI净流出和28个国家(地区)金融资本净流入的数据进行分析,发现制度质量对FDI净流出和金融资本净流入有显著正向影响;只有当制度质量超越门槛值,资本市场才能对FDI净流出产生显著促进作用;金融发展通过银行和资本市场途径对金融资本净流入均产生影响,但只有后者对金融资本净流入有显著非线性影响,即当制度质量超越门槛值后资本市场规模对金融资本净流入的促进作用才显著增强。

The paper analyzes the data of FDI net outflows of 64 countries （districts） and financial capital net inflows of 28 countries （districts） from 2005 to 2012 with threshold regression. The thesis is concluded as follows： institution qual- ity has positive effects on FDI net outflows and financial capital net inflows ; only under the condition of institution quality surpasses the threshold, will the financial system work; the financial development has threshold effects on FDI and finan- cial capital net flows through bank and capital market, but only the later has a significant nonlinear effect on it, that is, when institution quality has surpassed the threshold, the effects of the scale of capital market on financial capital net in- flows will become significant.