转型期我国农业增长路径与技术进步方向的实证研究——基于大陆28省份的经验证据

Study on Agricultural Growth Paths and Direction of Technical Progress during Transition——An Empirical Test Based on 28 provinces in China's Mainland

从单要素生产率指标视角考察我国大陆28个省份1978—2011年农业增长路径和技术进步方向。结果表明:34年来中国各地区农业增长都进入了"S字型增长路径"的第三阶段,即中国农业增长在21世纪已由土地生产率导向的亚洲型增长路径转为劳动生产率导向的新大陆型增长路径,但各省之间农业要素生产率差距在不断增大。随着"刘易斯拐点"的到来,劳动力成本快速上升,大力发展节约劳动的机械技术来降低农业生产成本显得更为重要。

This paper analyzes the agricultural growth paths and direction of technical progress（1978-2011）of 28 provinces in China by using the partial factor productivity index.The result shows that agricultural growth in all parts of China has entered the third phase of＂S-shaped growth path＂for over34 years,that is,China＇s agricultural growth path in the 21 st century has transformed from the land productivity-oriented Asian growth path into the labor productivity-oriented new continental growth path,but the gap of the agricultural factor productivity among provinces is gradually increasing.With the arrival of the＂Lewis turning point＂,labor costs continue to rise.So developing labor-saving machinical technology to reduce the cost of agricultural production is more important.