中国出口产品多样化的经济增长效应研究

A Study of the Effect of Export Diversification on China's Economic Growth

出口产品多样化的发展对一国短期经济波动和长期经济增长均会产生重要的影响。基于1998—2009年省际面板数据半参数回归模型的经济增长效应的实证研究发现,中国出口产品多样化对经济增长的促进作用,主要体现为出口产品多样化"集约边际"所带来的增长效应;出口产品多样化"扩展边际"对中国经济增长的影响不显著。从目前的经济发展水平来看,中国尚未达到西方学界所提出的经济增长过程中由出口产品多样化向专业化转变的"拐点",中国出口产品多样化仍然存在一定的发展空间。我国在进一步提高中国出口产品多样化水平,深化出口产品多样化"集约边际"的同时,应积极扩大出口产品多样化的"扩展边际",由此可有效发挥出口产品多样化对中国经济增长的促进作用。

Export diversification has an important impact on both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term economic growths of a country. This study uses the semi-parametric regression model to analyze provincial panel data from1998 to 2009,and looks into the effect of export diversification on China＇s economic growth. Our results show that export diversification promotes China＇s economic growth,and that this effect results mainly from the effect of＂intensive margin＂of export diversification on economic growth. However,the effect of ＂extensive marginal＂of export diversification on China＇s economic growth is not significant. Judging by the current economic development in China,it can be asserted that China has not reached the ＂turning point＂which marks a transformation from export diversification to export specification. There is still considerable room for China to develop her export diversification. It is suggested that we should further enhance the level of China＇s export diversification by deepening the＂intensive margin＂of export diversification and expanding the＂extensive margin＂ of export diversification,thereby maximizing the effect of export diversification on China＇s economic growth.