全球价值链下我国碳排放的追踪与溯源——基于增加值贸易的研究

Tracing China's CO_2 Emissions in Global Value Chain Based on Added Value of Trade

全球价值链为气候谈判与国际贸易提供了新的视角。文章从最终需求角度对我国碳排放的部门和国别结构进行追溯,结果表明:我国生产碳排放从1995年的2664百万吨(Mt)增加到2009年的5907 Mt。从部门结构来看,我国国内消费和出口碳排放主要集中在"S17电力、燃气和水生产和供应业"等高耗能高排放部门,但随着我国出口结构的改善,高排放部门隐含碳出口比重有所下降。从国别结构来看,欧盟和美国对我国进出口隐含碳的影响在下降,印度、巴西等新兴经济体的影响在上升。虽然目前我国隐含碳进口远远少于隐含碳出口,但增长幅度却大于隐含碳出口。从长期趋势来看,如果在国际气候谈判中过分强调国外消费的增加是我国碳排放增长的一大主要原因,可能对中国不利。

Global value chain provides a new perspective for climate negotiation and international trade .The pa‐per accounts for the dow nstream and upstream of China’s CO2 emissions .T he results show that China’s pro‐duction‐based emissions increased from 2664 Million tons （Mt） in 1995 to 5907 Mt in 2009 .China’s domestic CO2 and export in CO2 （EiCO2 ） are mainly emitted in “S17 electricity ,gas and water supply”etc .With the im‐provement of China’s export structure ,EiCO2 in carbon‐intensive sectors decreased .The influence of EU and US on China’s CO2 emissions decreased ,while the influence of emerging economies such as India ,Brazil rose . China’s import in CO2 （IiCO2 ）is far less than EiCO2 ,but its grow th rate is greater than EiCO 2 .It may not be beneficial to China if the factor that foreign consumption is one of the main reasons for China ’s carbon emis‐sions grow th is over emphasized in international climate negotiation .