青藏高原东侧常规观测资料对WRF模式预报误差的贡献分析

Evaluation of conventional observations contribution on WRF model forecast error in the eastern of Tibetan Plateau

利用WRFDA-FSO(Forecast Sensitivity to Observation)系统,统计分析2009年和2010年5—10月青藏高原东侧常规地面和高空观测对WRF模式预报误差的贡献。结果表明:地面观测资料各要素中,温度场对模式预报误差贡献最大,风场、气压和水汽场的贡献相对小;四川东部、广西大部和云南南部边缘地区的资料对改进预报产生正贡献较大。高空资料各要素中,温度场对模式预报误差贡献最大,其次是水汽场,风场贡献最小;高空站资料对改进预报产生正贡献较大的区域主要分布在云南大部、贵州西部边缘和广西西北部边缘地区。依据误差统计结果,剔除对改进预报产生负贡献较大的地面和高空站资料后,模式降水和温度预报效果有所改善。

The contribution of conventional observations on the east side of Tibetan Plateau to forecast error in WRF model is evaluated by using the WRFDA-FSO（ Forecast Sensitivity to Observation） system from May to October in 2009 and 2010. Results showthat,for the surface observations,the surface temperature contributes the major impact to the forecast error,the surface wind,surface pressure and water vapor contribute the minor impact,and the surface observations located in the regions（ including eastern of Sichuan,most of Guangxi,and south edge of Yunnan） contribute the positive impact. For the sounding observations,the sounding temperature contributes the major impact to the forecast error,the sounding water vapor and sounding wind contribute minor impact,and the sounding observations located in the regions（ including most of Yunnan,west edge of Guizhou,and northwest edge of Guangxi）contribute positive impact. After removing the surface and sounding observations,which contribute negative impact,the precipitation and temperature forecast are improved.