尼泊尔8.1级大震与中国大陆西部8级大震预测研究

Nepal M 8. 1 earthquake and the prediction for M≥8 earthquakes in west China

自1300年以来的715 a间,中国大陆及其邻区共发生M≥8大震25次,呈现出显著的自组织有序性.特别是从1902年到2001年的100 a间,中国大陆西部地区发生3对前后间隔4 a的8级大震有序对.基于信息预测理论,在对中国大陆8级大震有序网络构建及其总结研究的基础上,补充尼泊尔3次8级大震新信息:2015年8.1级、1934年8.1级和1833年8级大震,进一步优化完善并构建8级大震二维与三维有序网络结构,并由此对未来8级大震进行预测.研究结果表明:2015年尼泊尔8.1级大震的发生,标志着新一轮8级大震活动的开始,未来数十年内大震强震将在青藏高原地区由南向北迁移发生,2022与2026年前后中国大陆西部将发生新的8级大震有序对,2029、2045年前后仍有可能发生8级大震.

According to the statistical analysis, a total of 25 M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in China's Mainland and nearby area from 1300 to 2015.The seismic activity of M≥8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness.It should be remarked especially that, there were three ordered pairs of M≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in west China during 1902--2001, of which, the time interval in each pair of two earthquakes was four years. This is a unique and rare earthquake example in earthquake history of China and the whole world.In the guidance of the in- formation forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo, based on previous research results, combining ordered analysis with complex network technology, we focus on the summary of the ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes, and add new information of three M≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Nepal to further optimize network, hence construct the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure of M≥8 earthquakes and make prediction research.The result shows,the occurrence of Nepal MS. 1 earthquake in 2015 indicates the beginning of another M ≥ 8 earthquake cycle.The strong earthquakes are suggested to happen near the Qinghai-Tibet plateau area and gradually shifted from south to north for the next several decades.The futrue ordered pair of M≥8 earthquakes are believed to happen around 2022 and 2026 in west China, as well as the single event around 2029 and 2045.