我国人群辐射致肺癌危险系数估算研究

Estimation of radiogenic lung cancer risk coefficients for Chinese population

目的估算我国人群辐射致肺癌危险系数。方法应用美国电离辐射效应委员会研发(2006年)的日本原子弹爆炸幸存者辐射致肺癌危险模型,计算其性别-年龄别超额相对和绝对危险系数。参考日本人群转移到美国人群的多种危险转移方法,确定由日本人群向我国人群进行危险转移的模型为相加相乘混合转移模型(算数尺度下,相加和相乘模型权重分别为0.7和0.3)。根据我国最新(2009年)肺癌年龄组别基线发病率,采用曲线拟合方法,估算其年龄别发病率。结果估算获得我国人群肺癌辐射致癌相对危险系数值,男性为0.19/Sv,女性为0.73/Sv(30岁受照,60岁患癌)。受照年龄越小,患癌年龄越小,此系数越大。结论我国人群肺癌辐射致癌危险系数总体低于日本原子弹爆炸幸存者,二者随性别-年龄变化趋势相似。

OBJECTIVE To estimate sex-age specific excess relative risk coefficients of lung cancer due to ionizing radiation for Chinese population. METHODS Calculating sex-age specific excess relative and absolute risk coefficients of lung cancer for Life Span Study by risk models developed by Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation（BEIR）~. Guided by transportation methods of excess risk caused by ionizing radiation from Life Span Study to Americans, for Chinese popula- tion we determined transportation method, which employed both multiplicative and additive transfer model with a weight of 0.3 and 0.7 respectively, on an arithmetic scale. Besides, we did curve fitting to obtain sex-age specific lung cancer baseline incidence based on the latest Chinese data for year 2009. RESULTS Excess relative risk coefficients of lung cancer for Chinese population were 0.19/Sv for male and 0.73/Sv for female, whose exposure age was 30 years old and cancer age was 60 years old. Coefficients went up with smaller exposure age and smaller cancer age. CONCLUSION Ex- cess relative risk coefficients of lung cancer due to ionizing radiation for Chinese population are almost lower than that of Life Span Study, and their sex-age tendency is similar.