中国人口政策的经济效应:OLG模型和Panel数据分析

The Economic Effect of Population Policy in China: Based on OLG Model and Panel Data Analysis

基于世代交叠(OLG)模型,采用30个省份1983—2012年的面板数据,研究我国人口政策对经济增长及社会福利的影响,其模型分析与实证研究结果一致地表明:我国过去30多年实施的计划生育政策显著地推动了人均收入的增长,但也导致人口的老龄化趋势,带来潜在的养老资源不足和老年福利损失的问题。基于2010年人口普查数据进行的未来70年人口变动模拟显示,"单独二胎"政策作用微弱,不能改变人口结构老化的趋势,而全面"二胎化"政策将改善和稳定我国未来的人口结构,对稳定劳动力供给和养老、幼教等多方面的需求起关键作用,并由此助推人口、经济、社会的持续协调发展。因此,我国立即研究实施全面"二胎化"的人口生育政策是十分必要的。

Based on the two-period overlapping generation( OLG) model and the panel data from 1983 to 2012 of 30 provinces,this paper investigates the impact of China's population policy on the economic growth and the social welfare. The model analysis and the empirical investigation results consistently indicate that the past 30 years the implementation of the family planning policy prominently promoted the growth of average per capita income. Nevertheless,it gave rise to the trend of the population aging,causing the shortage of the potential endowment resources and elderly welfare loss. The simulation of the population movement in the next 70 years based on the 2010 population census data reveals that the'selective two-child policy'will have little impact on the trend of aging population structure,while the general two-child policy will ameliorate and stabilize China's population structure in the future. This will play a crucial role in many aspects such as the stability of the labor supply,the providing for the aged,and the preschool education,and thus boost the sustainable and coordinated population,economy and society development. Accordingly,we come up with the propose that it is necessary and urgent for China to consider the implementation of the general two-child policy immediately.