小农种地意愿及其目标价格形成机制研究——以SC省SZH村水稻种植为例

Peasant Grain Planting Intention and Target Price Formation Mechanism:A Case Study of Rice Cultivation in SZH Village in SC Province

文章使用2008-2012年45户水稻种植小农家庭微观面板数据,实证检验了粮价预期如何影响小农种粮行为。文章通过使用面板联立方程估计了农地经营和水稻种植等因素与家庭收入之间的关系;使用二元选择模型考察了粮价管制场景下决定小农种粮意愿的影响因素,并在此基础上揭示了目标价格的形成机理。研究发现:在货币收入最大化(支出压力最小化)的小农理性假设下,收入增加越快的家庭越倾向于减少水稻种植面积;目标价格的主要决定因素有家庭工资性收入、种粮雇工工资和家庭支出水平等。因此未来政府应关注小农的种粮意愿变化,重视小农家庭农业生产行为的转变趋向;构建和完善与小农行为选择相契合的粮食目标价格形成机制,尽可能减小由于小农集中放弃土地经营而对农业和社会经济发展造成的不利影响。

Based on micropanel data of 45 rice planting peasant households from 2008 to 2012, this paper empirically tests the effect of rice price expectation on peasant grain planting behavior. It estimates the relationship between factors like agricultural land man agement rice planting and household income by panel simultaneous equations. And it ex plores the determinants of peasant grain planting intention to reveal the target price forma tion mechanism through binary choice model. It comes to the conclusions as follows, first ly, under the peasant rationality hypothesis of currency income maximization （spending pressure minimization）, peasant households with more rapid income growth are more like ly to reduce rice planting areas; secondly, factors such as household wage income, grain employee wages and household spending level determine the target price. Therefore, this paper believes that governments should focus on changes in peasant grain planting inten tion and pay attention to the transformation tendency of agricultural production behavior of peasant households in the future; it should construct and perfect target rice price formation mechanism matching with peasant behavior choices, and try its best to reduce the adverse effects on agriculture and social economic development resulting from centralized abandon of land management by peasants.