住房资产、价格波动与我国城镇居民消费行为——基于传导渠道的分析

Housing Assets,Price Fluctuations and Consumption Behavior of Urban Residents in China:An Econometric Analysis Based on Transmission Channels

文章在最优跨期消费选择模型的基础上引入了居民的借贷约束和预防性动机,推导出检验房价波动对消费的直接财富效应、流动性约束效应和预防性储蓄效应的实证分析框架,然后根据不同渠道作用机理的差异,利用普通面板回归模型和门槛面板回归模型进行了实证检验。研究发现,2003年以后,房价上升对城镇居民的消费具有微弱的财富效应,从影响渠道来看,主要是通过预防性储蓄渠道,其次是流动性约束渠道实现的,而直接财富效应并不明显。这种作用主要体现在对大额耐用消费品支出以及支配自由度较大、往往具有享受特征的消费支出的促进上。这一时期房价上升带来的财富增加只是在一定程度上降低了居民对不确定性的谨慎程度,缓解了居民在面对大额刚性支出时所受到的流动性约束,从而降低了消费对当期收入的敏感性。

This paper introduces borrowing constraints and precautionary motive into an optimal intertemporal consumption choice model, and derives an empirical analysis framework identifying the pure wealth, liquidity constraints and precautionary savings effects of housing price fluctuations on consumption. Then according to the different roles of transmission channels, it uses ordinary panel regression and threshold panel regression modes to make an empirical test. It reaches the results as follows, after 2003, the rise in housing prices has weak pure wealth effect on urban residents consumption, and from the perspective of channels, precautionary savings channel plays the most strongest role, fol lowed by liquidity constraints and pure wealth channels. Accordingly the wealth effect is mainly reflected in the promotion of spending on large consumer durables and consumption with larger dominance freedom and enjoying feature. It shows that wealth increase resul ting from the rise in housing prices only reduces residents cautious attitude toward uncer tainty to a certain extent, and alleviates the liquidity constraints when facing large rigid ex penditures, thereby leading to the reduction in the sensitivity of consumption to current in come.