亚欧洲际输电送端地区能源电力外送意愿研究

Study on the Energy and Electricity Export Intention of the Asian Sending-Ends During the Asia-Europe Intercontinental Transmission

亚洲地区能源资源丰富,具有向欧洲负荷中心大规模输送清洁能源和电力的潜力。为分析亚欧洲际输电送端地区能源电力外送意愿,提出一种一次能源及电力外送意愿分析模型。模型主要包括送端地区、受端地区和国际背景3个模块,依据产业经济学理论和实际的跨国能源电力贸易产业链,搭建联立方程形式的向量自回归模型进行参数估计及相关检验。以俄罗斯对欧盟地区的能源电力外送为算例,考虑预设的发展情景,分析未来俄罗斯的外送意愿。模型输出结果表明俄罗斯国内生产总值的增长可依赖于一次能源和电力出口的不断增加,且俄罗斯能源发展具有强化电力出口,弱化一次能源出口的趋势;其一次能源与电力产业具有差异化发展格局,面临化石燃料过度开采和可再生能源发展起步的局面。总体而言,在地缘政治格局稳定的前提下,俄罗斯对欧盟地区未来的能源电力外送意愿将逐步加强。

The rich reserve of energy resources in Asia region bring a high potential in large-scale clean energy and electricity transmission to the European load centers. The energy and electricity export intention analysis model is proposed to study the Asia-Europe intercontinental transmission. It is consist of three sub-modules, the sending-end, receiving-end and international background module. Based on the industrial economics theory and the practical trade chain, the simultaneous equations are established, and are evaluated by the vector auto-regression method. Taking the primary energy and electricity export from Russia to Europe as the application example, considering the pre-set scenario, the future export intention of Russia is analyzed. The outputs show the growth of Russia GDP can rely on increase of the primary energy and electricity export which characterized a trend of enhancement on the electricity as well as reduction on the primary energy. The development of the two industry possessed divergence patterns, indicating over exploitation of fossil fuel and initiation of renewable energy utilization. Overall, assuming a steady geopolitical situation, the Russia export intention of primary energy and clean electricity will be enhanced steadily in the future.