基于多状态新能源发电模拟的日运行方式及调峰安排研究

Research on Daily Operation Mode and Peak Load Regulation Scheduling Based on Generation Simulation of Multi-State Renewable Energy Resources

大规模风电的接入使得电力系统的调峰问题越来越严重,因此有必要通过分析日运行方式来研究电源结构的合理性。在传统电力电量平衡法的基础上,提出了一种基于多状态新能源发电模拟的日运行方式和调峰安排算法,用于对电源投产方案进行运行可行性的分析与校验。算法基于Markov过程进行风电出力的时序多状态建模,根据历史风电出力数据得到初始分布和转移矩阵。在等效电量函数法的基础上提出了一种高效的多状态负荷修正方法,进而以确定性的生产模拟方法研究系统的电力电量平衡情况及调峰问题,从而保证电源建设方案在满足经济性、可靠性的基础上还满足运行可行性的相关要求。算例分析验证了所提模型与算法的有效性和实用性,可为我国电源规划工作提供参考。

Grid-connection of large-scale wind farms makes the peak load regulation of power grid more and more severe, so it is necessary to research the rationality of power structure by analyzing daily operation modes. Based on traditional method for electric power and energy balance, a daily operation mode and an algorithm for peak load regulation scheduling based on the simulation of multi-state renewable energy power generation are proposed to analyze and verify the operational feasibility of the scheme to put renewable energy source into operation. Based on Markov process, the time-sequential multi-state modeling of wind power output is performed by the proposed algorithm, and the wind power output distribution as well as the transition matrix at the initial time are obtained from historical data of wind power output. On the basis of equivalent energy function method, an efficient multi-state load modifying method is put forward, and a deterministic production simulation method is utilized to further research the electric power and energy balance and the peak-load regulation, thus in the premise of ensuring the economy and the reliability of energy resource construction scheme the related demands on operational feasibility are also met. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed model and algorithm are validated by analysis on examples.