基于非参数回归的风电场理论功率计算方法

The Wind Farm Theoretical Power Calculation Method Research Based on Non-Parameter Regression

风电场理论功率计算可用于恢复风电场限电等非正常功率数据,对于恢复历史功率数据、建立风电场功率统计预测模型、计算限电量和电力交易结算等具有重要意义。在分析大量风电场实际功率数据的基础上,对于无完整调度控制指令记录和风机运行记录的风电场,根据其实际运行状态和风机类型,合理设置筛选阈值,剔除了限电等非正常功率数据;根据实际功率曲线的特点,采用风向、气压等气象数据对样本数据进行划分;然后采用非参数回归方法拟合风机功率曲线并计算单机理论功率,根据相关系数加权方法修正和补齐缺失功率数据,提出基于非参数回归的风电场理论功率计算方法,并建立完整的理论功率计算模型。通过实际风电场测试,验证了方法的有效性和正确性,并与风电场发电能力验证方法的计算结果进行比较,验证所提方法的先进性。

The theoretical power calculation of wind farms can recover the abnormal wind power data, such as curtailed wind farm output, and plays an important role in wind power prediction model building, historical data recovery and electricity transaction settlement etc. In this paper, based on a lot of wind power data analysis, filter thresholds were set up according to the wind farm operation state and wind turbine types to delete the abnormal data, like curtailed output data. Non-parameter regression method was employed to fit the power curve of wind turbines. Fault and missing power data was modified and added using real wind speed data and correlation coefficient weights. The wind farm theoretical power calculation method based on Non-parameter regression was proposed in this paper. In addition, a whole theoretical power calculation model was built. According to the case study, it can correctly work out the theoretical output of wind farm; and comparing with park power verification（PPV） method, the results showed that this proposed method was better.