沈阳近39年温度和降水变化趋势分析

Analysis on Variation Trend of Temperature and Precipitation in Shenyang in Recent 39 Years

选取沈阳市1961～1999年1、7月和年平均温度、降水资料，采用相关系数法和R／S法对沈阳的气候变化趋势进行了分析；同时选取新民对应月份和年份的资料，采用城郊对比法对沈阳城市气候效应进行了分析。结果表明，1961～1989年沈阳1月平均温度和年平均温度均呈上升趋势。而7月平均温度呈下降趋势；R／S法检验1990～1999年资料显示，1990～1999年平均温度和1月平均温度变化趋势与过去趋势相同，均呈上升趋势，7月平均温度变化趋势与过去相反，即呈上升趋势，说明R／S法对沈阳地区较适合。分析沈阳和新民的温度、降水资料，沈阳城市热岛强度依次为1月〉年平均〉7月；沈阳1961-1989年1月降水量呈下降趋势，7月则呈微弱的上升趋势，年平均降水量随机性较大；1990～1995年资料验证结果显示，1月降水变化趋势将与过去趋势相同，仍呈下降趋势，7月和年平均的降水变化具有较大的随机性，R／S方法也可应用在降水量的分析，但不如对温度的分析效果好。

The text mostly selects the data of temperature and precipitation in January, July and annual mean from 1961 to 1999 in Shenyang City, based on correlation coefficient and R/S method to analyze the climate of Shenyang and it＇ s intending trend ; The Xinmin＇ s consistent data is selected by using urban-rural difference method to illustration the city effect of Shenyang. The result shows that the Shenyang City＇ s temperature has an ascend trend in January and annual mean from 1961 to 1989, the temperature in July has a descending trend; the trend in the future of temperature in January and annual mean has the same trend to the past, the trend of the future temperature in July is opposite to the past, the ascend trend in annual mean of temperature is bigger than the July＇ s. The effect of ＂urban heat island＂ in January is the most evident and the July＇ s is the most minimal, ion in annual mean has a great randomicity ; the future＇ s trend of precipitation in winter has a de- scending trend, which has the same trend to the past, the trend in the future of precipitation in January and annual mean have more randomici- ty. The R/S method can apply on the analysis of PreciPitation. but the effect is not as good as the temperature＇ s.