技术进步对中国就业影响的实证分析:1995～2013年

Empirical Analysis on the Influence of Technological Advancement on the Employment in China:1995～2013

文章首先基于DEA—Malmquist生产率指数，实证测算了1995～2013年间中国29个省（直辖市、自治区）的全要素生产率（TFP）及技术进步、技术效率指数。其次，通过实证分析讨论全要素生产率以及技术进步、技术效率指数对我国区域就业的影响。结果表明，全要素生产率（TFP）和技术进步对就业的拉动作用均显著为负，但是技术效率对于就业的影响并不显著。此外，实际工资水平的上升对就业具有负效应，而产出水平的增加有利于就业人口的增加。因此，文章建议，在经济新常态背景下，应以产业结构升级为基础，以技术进步为动力，提高科研成果转化为产出的效率，从供需两个角度为就业量的增加创造机会。

First, this article used the DEA model to measure the technological progress, the technical efficiency and Malmquist productivity indexes in 29 provinces, municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions based on the province level panel data in China from 1995 to 2013. Second, it constructed a framework to analyze the relations between the technological progress, the technical efficiency and regional employment. The results are that technological progress has significantly negative effects on the employment, but technical efficiency has no significant impact on the employment, Furthermore, real wage has negative effects on the employment, while GDP has positive effects. Therefore, in new economic normal, we should base on the upgrading of the industrial structure and improve the efficiency of high scientific research results into out- put.