宏观经济波动与微观家庭决策对居民金融资产选择的影响效果分析

Analysis of the Fluctuation of Macro Economy and Micro Family Decision Effect on Household Financial Assets Selection

居民家庭金融资产选择不仅会受到微观内因的影响,还会受到宏观经济周期波动的影响。笔者将居民的金融资产选择分为储蓄意愿和购买股票或基金意愿,利用2003年第1季度至2014年第1季度的时间序列数据,构建多元GARCH模型,分析外部宏观经济周期波动(GDP增长率、利率)和家庭其他决策(消费意愿、购房意愿)对居民金融资产选择的影响,并且同时分析储蓄意愿和购买股票或基金意愿的相互影响变动,并以GDP增长率的波动周期作为标准,将经济划分为上行和下行两个时期,设置虚拟变量,考虑经济不同运行期间居民金融资产选择对家庭内部决策和外部宏观经济指标的敏感性变化。分析认为,居民家庭金融资产选择仍以储蓄为主,宏观货币调控政策对储蓄意愿影响不大,对购买股票或基金意愿的影响比较大,并且影响效果持续时间长。在经济上行期实行宏观调控政策效果更显著。

Household financial assets selection is not only affected by the micro internal, but also affected by the macroeconomic environment. In this paper, the residents＇ financial assets choice intention was classified desired saving and the purchase of stock or fund will. Using time series data of the first quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2014, the multivariate GARCH model was constructed. Then, the influence of the external macroeconomic fluctuation （GDP growth rate, the interest rate） and other family decision （consumption intention, the purchase will ） on residents＇ financial assets selection was analyzed. Meanwhile the interrelationship and alteration between desired saving and the purchase of stock or fund will. Taking the fluctuation cycle of GDP growth rate as a standard, the economy was divided into uplink and downlink period. Setting the dummy variable, the sensitivity of financial assets choice of residents to changes in macroeconomic indicators of internal and external family decision during the different operation of the economy was compared. In conclusion, macroeconomic monetary policy has little effect on the saving will, but has distinct effect on the purchase of stock or fund. Moreover, the effect on the last one will last for a long time. And in the economic boom, the implementation of economic macro-control policy has more obvious effect than that in the downturn.